Five minds. One portfolio. Zero noise.
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A portfolio
Zero noise
Ask in plain language. Elisa puts it in circulation across the team and Cerebro answers with sources, limits and cost. And it gives a verdict, not an «it depends».
History of this desk
Elisa is an artificial intelligence, not a person. Her answers are generated by an AI model.
This is general analysis and not a personalised investment recommendation. The person who invests is the one who decides. The chat may search the internet when the vault does not know the answer (a figure from today, a recent news item); those internet sources nobody has reviewed them and they may be incomplete or wrong, so check them before acting. The five profiles that sign the answers (Elisa, Jorne, Carlos Bárez, Daniel Ferrer, Inés Torres) are specialisms of one single automatic system: they are not people nor registered advisers.
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Model portfolios · Example
Golden Butterfly
Five equal sleeves: developed-market equities, US value-style small companies, eurozone government bonds at long maturity, short-term government bonds and gold.
The idea
It is a variant of the Permanent Portfolio, with which it shares four of its five assets, tilted towards prosperity: it adds a sleeve of small value companies. It keeps gold and bonds for the environments in which equities suffer.
Where it comes from
Tyler, the author of the Portfolio Charts website, proposed it. The original used large US companies, US small value companies, long-term and short-term US Treasury bonds and gold, 20 % each; here the first sleeve is developed-market equities and the bonds are eurozone.
Environments in which it struggles
- In a long run of gains for large companies: only a fifth is in the broad market.
- When small value companies lag for years: that sleeve drags on the portfolio relative to the broad market.
- When interest rates rise sharply: the long-term bond sleeve falls, as in 2022.
- Equities from developed countries20 %
- US small-cap «value»20 %
- Eurozone public debt at 15-30 years20 %
- Eurozone public debt at 1-3 years20 %
- Physical gold20 %
| Peso | Componente | Índice | Instrumento de referencia | ISIN | TER |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 % | Equities from developed countries | MSCI World | iShares Core MSCI World UCITS ETF (Acc) | IE00B4L5Y983 | 0,20 % |
| 20 % | US small-cap «value» | MSCI USA Small Cap Value Weighted | SPDR MSCI USA Small Cap Value Weighted UCITS ETF | IE00BSPLC413 | 0,30 % |
| 20 % | Eurozone public debt at 15-30 years | Bloomberg Euro Government Bond 15-30 | iShares € Govt Bond 15-30yr UCITS ETF (Dist) | IE00B1FZS913 | 0,15 % |
| 20 % | Eurozone public debt at 1-3 years | Bloomberg Euro Government Bond 1-3 | iShares € Govt Bond 1-3yr UCITS ETF (Dist) | IE00B14X4Q57 | 0,10 % |
| 20 % | Physical gold | Precio del oro | iShares Physical Gold ETC | IE00B4ND3602 | 0,12 % |
Los instrumentos son de referencia para cada índice, no una selección de producto: dicen qué fondo sigue cada índice, y la tabla no es una lista de compras.
Cómo se ha calculado y de dónde salen los datos
Rentabilidades pasadas no garantizan rentabilidades futuras.
Simulación con índices reconstruidos a partir de datos públicos (BCE, Banco Mundial, Kenneth R. French); no es la rentabilidad de ningún fondo ni ETF. Sin comisiones, impuestos ni costes de cambio.
Rebalanceo anual al cierre de diciembre, rentabilidad total y divisa euro. Cada mes, cada tramo crece con el índice del suyo; al cierre de cada diciembre la cartera vuelve a los pesos de la ficha. La ventana va de sep-2004 – ago-2026, 22 años de rentabilidad, y todo está en euros, convertidos con el tipo de cambio de fin de mes del BCE. Los índices de renta variable y de deuda son de rentabilidad total; el del oro es el precio del metal y el de materias primas es un índice spot, así que no incluyen ni el roll ni la rentabilidad del colateral de los futuros.
Las fuentes
- Kenneth R. French Data Library, Developed 3 Factors (mensual): Equities from developed countries. Kenneth R. French Data Library, © Eugene F. Fama y Kenneth R. French; se cita la fuente y no se modifica la estadística.
- Kenneth R. French Data Library, Emerging 5 Factors (mensual): Emerging-market equities. Kenneth R. French Data Library, © Eugene F. Fama y Kenneth R. French; se cita la fuente y no se modifica la estadística.
- Kenneth R. French Data Library, 6 Portfolios 2x3 (mensual): US small-cap «value». Kenneth R. French Data Library, © Eugene F. Fama y Kenneth R. French; se cita la fuente y no se modifica la estadística.
- Banco Central Europeo, ESTR (diario) y EONIA (mensual): Eurozone public debt at under one year. Banco Central Europeo, Data Portal. Reutilización gratuita, también comercial, citando la fuente y sin modificar la serie.
- Banco Central Europeo, curva de rendimientos a la par (YC, G_N_C): Eurozone public debt at 1-3 years · Eurozone public debt (all maturities) · Eurozone public debt at 7-10 years · Eurozone public debt at 15-30 years. Banco Central Europeo, Data Portal. Reutilización gratuita, también comercial, citando la fuente y sin modificar la serie.
- Banco Mundial, Pink Sheet, hoja «Monthly Prices», columna Gold: Physical gold. Banco Mundial, Pink Sheet (Commodity Markets Outlook). © Banco Mundial, CC BY 4.0.
- Banco Mundial, Pink Sheet, hoja «Monthly Indices», columna Total Index: Diversified commodities. Banco Mundial, Pink Sheet (Commodity Markets Outlook). © Banco Mundial, CC BY 4.0.
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