Five minds. One portfolio. Zero noise.
Five minds
A portfolio
Zero noise
Ask in plain language. Elisa puts it in circulation across the team and Cerebro answers with sources, limits and cost. And it gives a verdict, not an «it depends».
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Elisa is an artificial intelligence, not a person. Her answers are generated by an AI model.
This is general analysis and not a personalised investment recommendation. The person who invests is the one who decides. The chat may search the internet when the vault does not know the answer (a figure from today, a recent news item); those internet sources nobody has reviewed them and they may be incomplete or wrong, so check them before acting. The five profiles that sign the answers (Elisa, Jorne, Carlos Bárez, Daniel Ferrer, Inés Torres) are specialisms of one single automatic system: they are not people nor registered advisers.
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Model portfolios · Example
Permanent Portfolio (Harry Browne)
Four equal sleeves: developed-market equities, eurozone government bonds at long maturity, very short-term government bonds instead of cash, and gold. It is the euro-denominated version of the portfolio proposed by the US financial writer Harry Browne.
The idea
Browne started from the premise that nobody knows which economic environment is coming, and assigned one sleeve to each of four: prosperity (equities), deflation (long-term bonds), inflation (gold) and recession or scarce money (cash). With all four at equal weight and an annual rebalancing, the expectation is that in every environment at least one sleeve does well.
The priority is to preserve capital, not to maximise returns.
Where it comes from
Browne explained it in Fail-Safe Investing (1999): 25 % in US equities, 25 % in long-term US Treasury bonds, 25 % in cash — Treasury bills — and 25 % in gold. Here its euro equivalents are used.
Environments in which it struggles
- In a long run of stock market gains: only a quarter of the capital is in equities.
- When interest rates rise sharply: long-term bonds are the ones that fall the most, as in 2022.
- When gold goes years without rising: a quarter of the portfolio contributes nothing during that time.
- Equities from developed countries25 %
- Eurozone public debt at 15-30 years25 %
- Eurozone public debt at under one year25 %
- Physical gold25 %
| Peso | Componente | Índice | Instrumento de referencia | ISIN | TER |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 % | Equities from developed countries | MSCI World | iShares Core MSCI World UCITS ETF (Acc) | IE00B4L5Y983 | 0,20 % |
| 25 % | Eurozone public debt at 15-30 years | Bloomberg Euro Government Bond 15-30 | iShares € Govt Bond 15-30yr UCITS ETF (Dist) | IE00B1FZS913 | 0,15 % |
| 25 % | Eurozone public debt at under one year | Bloomberg Euro Short Treasury | iShares € Govt Bond 0-1yr UCITS ETF (Dist) | IE00B3FH7618 | 0,07 % |
| 25 % | Physical gold | Precio del oro | iShares Physical Gold ETC | IE00B4ND3602 | 0,12 % |
Los instrumentos son de referencia para cada índice, no una selección de producto: dicen qué fondo sigue cada índice, y la tabla no es una lista de compras.
Cómo se ha calculado y de dónde salen los datos
Rentabilidades pasadas no garantizan rentabilidades futuras.
Simulación con índices reconstruidos a partir de datos públicos (BCE, Banco Mundial, Kenneth R. French); no es la rentabilidad de ningún fondo ni ETF. Sin comisiones, impuestos ni costes de cambio.
Rebalanceo anual al cierre de diciembre, rentabilidad total y divisa euro. Cada mes, cada tramo crece con el índice del suyo; al cierre de cada diciembre la cartera vuelve a los pesos de la ficha. La ventana va de sep-2004 – ago-2026, 22 años de rentabilidad, y todo está en euros, convertidos con el tipo de cambio de fin de mes del BCE. Los índices de renta variable y de deuda son de rentabilidad total; el del oro es el precio del metal y el de materias primas es un índice spot, así que no incluyen ni el roll ni la rentabilidad del colateral de los futuros.
Las fuentes
- Kenneth R. French Data Library, Developed 3 Factors (mensual): Equities from developed countries. Kenneth R. French Data Library, © Eugene F. Fama y Kenneth R. French; se cita la fuente y no se modifica la estadística.
- Kenneth R. French Data Library, Emerging 5 Factors (mensual): Emerging-market equities. Kenneth R. French Data Library, © Eugene F. Fama y Kenneth R. French; se cita la fuente y no se modifica la estadística.
- Kenneth R. French Data Library, 6 Portfolios 2x3 (mensual): US small-cap «value». Kenneth R. French Data Library, © Eugene F. Fama y Kenneth R. French; se cita la fuente y no se modifica la estadística.
- Banco Central Europeo, ESTR (diario) y EONIA (mensual): Eurozone public debt at under one year. Banco Central Europeo, Data Portal. Reutilización gratuita, también comercial, citando la fuente y sin modificar la serie.
- Banco Central Europeo, curva de rendimientos a la par (YC, G_N_C): Eurozone public debt at 1-3 years · Eurozone public debt (all maturities) · Eurozone public debt at 7-10 years · Eurozone public debt at 15-30 years. Banco Central Europeo, Data Portal. Reutilización gratuita, también comercial, citando la fuente y sin modificar la serie.
- Banco Mundial, Pink Sheet, hoja «Monthly Prices», columna Gold: Physical gold. Banco Mundial, Pink Sheet (Commodity Markets Outlook). © Banco Mundial, CC BY 4.0.
- Banco Mundial, Pink Sheet, hoja «Monthly Indices», columna Total Index: Diversified commodities. Banco Mundial, Pink Sheet (Commodity Markets Outlook). © Banco Mundial, CC BY 4.0.
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